For about twenty years the Western Balkan states have been told that a clear route to European Union membership exists, yet progress remains blocked by unresolved issues stemming from the conflicts of the 1990s.

The European Council’s 2003 Thessaloniki declaration affirmed that the Balkans’ future lies within the EU. Croatia entered the Union in 2004 and Slovenia followed in 2013, but Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia have not yet achieved membership.

Stabilisation and Association Process and its limits

Candidate status under the EU enlargement policy is linked to good neighbourly relations and full implementation of the Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP). The SAP obliges countries to cooperate with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), to facilitate the return of refugees, to protect minority rights and to promote regional cooperation.

EU assistance has largely been channelled to fund the ICTY, while other reconciliation activities – such as truth commissions and education reforms – have received comparatively little money.

RECOM and the quest for a shared factual record

The Regional Commission for Establishing Facts about War Crimes and Serious Human Rights Violations (RECOM) was launched in Pristina in October 2008 after a resolution signed by one hundred organisations. RECOM now brings together more than two thousand NGOs, victims’ groups, refugee organisations and cultural bodies from across the Balkans. Its work involves documenting mass graves, collecting survivor testimonies and publishing reports designed to counter denialist narratives.

Serbian and Bosnian authorities have been reluctant to endorse RECOM’s findings, citing concerns that nationalist backlash could destabilise existing power‑sharing arrangements. The Serbian Progressive Party has portrayed EU conditionality as an external imposition, while in Bosnia and Herzegovina ethnic politicians continue to invoke wartime victimhood to justify political deadlock.

Everyday consequences of unfinished business

Unsettled property disputes, delayed pensions for war widows and incomplete missing‑persons databases affect ordinary citizens throughout the region.

Younger generations are increasingly leaving the Balkans, driven by limited job prospects and an unclear timeline for EU accession.

Berlin Process and divergent EU approaches

The Berlin Process, a diplomatic initiative started in 2014, seeks to promote regional cooperation and economic development while acknowledging the importance of the past. It does not set binding reconciliation targets.

Germany and Austria have advocated for EU‑wide mechanisms to support truth‑seeking projects, whereas other member states prefer to focus on economic criteria.

Proposals for a more conditional enlargement

Several proposals have emerged to link pre‑accession EU funding to measurable reconciliation steps, such as the adoption of national truth‑commission legislation or the introduction of joint school curricula. Another suggestion calls for increased EU financial support for civil‑society groups working on victims’ rights, memory projects and inter‑ethnic dialogue. A “reconciliation scorecard” could add transparent criteria to the enlargement framework, mirroring the rule‑of‑law and anti‑corruption benchmarks already in use.

Strategic stakes for the Union

The Balkans host important energy routes and could serve as a gateway for trade with emerging markets in the wider region. External powers, notably Russia and China, have sought to expand their influence through infrastructure projects and political outreach.

A fully integrated Balkans is presented as beneficial for EU energy security, migration management and foreign‑policy coherence.

Looking ahead

The next EU summit, planned for late 2024, is expected to revisit the Western Balkan agenda and decide on the stringency of accession conditionality, potentially reshaping the region’s path towards European integration.