Filip Scherf, a Czech scholar of Russian foreign policy, told UnionPress that the war in Ukraine has become a strategic dead‑end for Moscow. He argues that the conflict is producing three inter‑linked crises – on the battlefield, within the political elite and among the broader population – that together are reducing the Kremlin’s ability to sustain the war.

Military setbacks and the battlefield front

Ukrainian forces have increasingly struck targets inside Russian territory, including oil refineries in the southern regions and energy infrastructure near the Baltic coast. Such attacks are beginning to strain Russia’s domestic fuel supply, leading to long queues at petrol stations and rising prices for ordinary citizens. As Scherf put it, "When you hit a refinery, you hit the lifeblood of the war economy," underscoring how loss of key energy assets hampers Russia’s capacity to fund its military operations, which rely heavily on oil and gas revenues.

Economic strain and the civilian front

The war has forced Moscow to divert resources from civilian sectors to the defence industry. Russian households are now facing consumer‑goods shortages, inflation and a devalued ruble. While the political elite can still access foreign currency and preserve a degree of wealth, the middle class is bearing higher food prices and reduced pensions. Scherf notes a growing gap between the privileged few who can keep assets abroad and the rest of the population that is now paying for the war.

Repression has kept open protest largely absent, but resentment is evident in the everyday hardships endured by ordinary Russians. State‑controlled polling approved by the presidential administration shows a decline in President Vladimir Putin’s popularity, reflecting the widening discontent.

Elite division and the political front

Within the Russian political elite, a split is emerging. Some officials remain loyal to Putin’s vision of a decisive victory, while others are alarmed by deteriorating fiscal health and the risks associated with post‑war integration of returning soldiers. The Kremlin is aware that demobilising a large army without a clear reintegration plan could destabilise the whole system, potentially affecting the security services and the business community.

Despite these pressures, Russia has not been completely isolated. It retains leverage in the Global South, where many countries view the war through the prism of anti‑Western sentiment, and benefits from expanded BRICS ties and deeper cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. These alternative economic avenues provide Moscow with some diplomatic breathing space.

Western options and their limits

The United States and the European Union have largely exhausted non‑military levers such as sanctions. While secondary sanctions could hurt Russian interests, they would also affect European and American companies that rely on Russian markets, are politically risky with US elections looming, and are difficult to enforce. Consequently, the West’s remaining tools – cyber operations, information warfare and covert support for dissent – carry a high risk of escalation.

Putin’s stance and the prospect of negotiations

Putin has repeatedly rejected cease‑fire proposals, viewing any concession as a sign of weakness that would erode the legitimacy on which he relies. A shift toward negotiations would therefore require either a clear victory that satisfies Kremlin objectives or a catastrophic internal breakdown – such as severe economic collapse, a mass demobilisation crisis or a coordinated elite revolt.

Implications for Europe

The prolonged conflict is already driving higher energy prices, disrupted supply chains and increased defence spending for European citizens. If Russia’s war machine falters, the scramble for alternative energy could accelerate the EU’s shift toward renewables, but would also create short‑term market volatility. Conversely, an expansion or intensification of the war could trigger a new wave of refugees, adding pressure to European social services and housing markets.

Near‑term outlook

The next few months are decisive. Should Russian elites conclude that the war is unsustainable, they may push for a strategic recalibration – either a hard‑line escalation intended to force a quick resolution or a sudden economic shock, such as a major refinery collapse or a banking crisis, that compels the Kremlin to consider a negotiated settlement. Any such settlement is likely to require concessions from Kyiv.

"The regime is at a crossroads," Scherf warned, highlighting how the direction Russia chooses will shape its future and the security and economic landscape of Europe for years to come.