Reinhard Gropp, head of the Halle Institute for Economic Research, told UnionPress that the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) growing appeal in Saxony‑Anhalt is unlikely to translate into better living standards for its supporters. He warned that the party's promises are largely unfeasible and that voters who back the far‑right could be the first to feel the impact of any future government.

The state election scheduled for 6 September could become historic. If the AfD manages to form a governing coalition, Saxony‑Anhalt would be the first German federal state to be run by a party classified by the state's domestic intelligence service as "demonstrably far‑right extremist" since the end of World War II.

Stagnating economy and structural rigidity

Gropp painted a bleak picture of Germany's macro‑economic backdrop. "The economy has been stagnant for a while," he said. Recent data revisions show a marginally better situation, but the overall trend remains flat. He identified three intertwined causes: a hostile global environment, high energy tariffs, and a domestic failure to enact meaningful reforms.

"Germany has not carried out any truly significant economic reform in twenty years," he argued, naming pension, income‑tax and climate policy as areas where change is overdue. The lack of reform, he said, leaves the economy ill‑equipped to absorb shocks or to adopt new technologies quickly.

One concrete illustration is the chemical sector, the backbone of Saxony‑Anhalt's industrial base. The industry is energy‑intensive and tightly linked; a disruption in one plant can trigger a cascade of closures across the supply chain. "It is like a line of dominoes," Gropp explained, noting that rising carbon costs threaten to topple the whole sector.

Regional particularities and the lure of the AfD

While Saxony‑Anhalt lags behind wealthier states such as Baden‑Württemberg or Bavaria, Gropp stressed that its economic performance is not dramatically worse than other eastern regions. The state's main challenge is its industrial profile and its reputation for poor quality of life. "People say it is terribly dirty and it smells," he recalled, referring to the pervasive chemical plants surrounding Halle and Magdeburg.

Unlike neighbouring Saxony, which benefits from the dynamic cities of Dresden and Leipzig, Saxony‑Anhalt's urban centres are only medium‑sized. The lack of a major metropolitan hub means fewer high‑skill jobs and less attraction for young professionals. "If you ask a 25‑year‑old where they would like to live, many say Leipzig rather than Halle," Gropp noted.

Despite these disadvantages, the state has seen a remarkable turnaround in employment. Unemployment, which hovered above 20 % a quarter of a century ago, is now close to full employment. Yet, paradoxically, the AfD's poll numbers have risen alongside this improvement.

Why economics cannot explain the vote

Gropp's research shows that personal economic circumstances account for only two percentage points of the AfD's roughly 40 % support in current polls. "The majority of the vote, about 38 %, comes from other factors," he said.

He identified the information ecosystem as the decisive element. Voters who rely exclusively on social media, bypassing traditional news outlets, are far more likely to back populist parties. Algorithms that feed users increasingly extreme content create echo chambers where misinformation spreads unchecked.

"People watch a video claiming the earth is flat, and the platform then shows them more of the same," Gropp explained. "Eventually they start to believe that the majority shares that view." The same mechanism applies to political narratives about refugees, immigration and national identity, which the AfD exploits to stoke fear and resentment.

These dynamics echo trends in other European democracies, from the Czech Republic to Italy, and even the United States. Gropp warned that the phenomenon is not confined to East Germany; it is a broader challenge for industrialised societies where digital media dominate public discourse.

Policy promises that clash with reality

The AfD's platform in Saxony‑Anhalt includes a raft of promises that Gropp deems unrealistic. Among them are drastic cuts to energy taxes, a rollback of climate regulations, and a freeze on pension contributions. "The party is incapable of delivering on almost any of its election promises," he asserted.

Given the state's reliance on the chemical industry, any attempt to slash carbon costs without a viable alternative would jeopardise jobs and tax revenues. Likewise, pension reforms that ignore demographic trends could strain the social security system, leaving future retirees vulnerable.Gropp warned that if the AfD were to govern, the first casualties would be the very voters who propelled it to power. "Those who vote for populists are often precisely the people who will ultimately suffer the most under a populist government," he said.

Union and civil‑society reactions

Trade unions in the region have already voiced concerns. The IG Chemie federation warned that any policy that undermines the carbon pricing mechanism would destabilise the sector and lead to layoffs. The German Trade Union Confederation (DGB) called for a "responsible coalition" that would safeguard workers' rights and maintain the social safety net.

Local NGOs highlighted the environmental impact of the chemical plants, urging the state government to invest in cleaner technologies rather than pursue short‑term tax relief. "We need a transition plan that protects both jobs and the environment," said a spokesperson for the Green Alliance of Saxony‑Anhalt.

What the European context adds

The potential rise of a far‑right government in Saxony‑Anhalt has implications beyond Germany's borders. The EU's climate agenda relies on member states to meet emissions targets, and a state that actively resists carbon pricing could undermine collective efforts.

Moreover, the situation mirrors the surge of nationalist parties in other EU regions, from the French National Rally to Italy's Lega. Analysts note that the EU's cohesion policy, which funds structural upgrades in lagging regions, may need to be recalibrated if such governments block or dilute funding streams.

"European solidarity is at risk when regional leaders turn inward and reject shared goals," warned a policy adviser at the European Commission's Directorate‑General for Regional and Urban Policy.

Looking ahead

The election outcome will shape Saxony‑Anhalt's trajectory for the next five years. If the AfD fails to secure a governing coalition, the state will likely continue under the current centre‑right administration, which has pledged modest reforms in pension and tax policy while maintaining the climate framework.

Should the AfD enter government, Gropp predicts a clash between its populist agenda and the structural constraints of the German economy. "You cannot simply turn off carbon costs without providing a viable alternative," he warned. "Without that, the chemical sector could collapse, and with it, the livelihoods of thousands."

For voters, the choice may come down to short‑term emotional appeal versus long‑term economic stability. As Gropp put it, "The real question is whether people will recognise that the promises they hear are not backed by economic reality."