Russia has confirmed that its Rassvet‑3 satellite constellation, intended to rival the West's Starlink network, is experiencing serious orbit‑raising failures, with several satellites already descending towards Earth. The development comes as Ukrainian cities, especially the capital, endure a near‑continuous barrage of Russian drones and missiles that have killed at least a dozen civilians in the past 24 hours.

The Rassvet‑3 project, launched by the state‑run Byuro‑1440 design bureau, was billed as a strategic answer to the loss of Starlink access for Russian users and a means to secure a sovereign communications layer for the war effort. In practice, the system is far from operational, and analysts say the technical glitches will limit any military advantage the Kremlin hoped to gain.

Orbit‑raising problems cripple the constellation

Russia's first batch of Rassvet‑3 satellites was lofted on 23 March 2026, when a single launch vehicle carried sixteen spacecraft into low Earth orbit. Six test satellites had already been placed in space during earlier missions, and a second batch of seventeen satellites followed in July. The original design called for the satellites to settle at an altitude of roughly 800 kilometres, a height that would give each craft a wide footprint on the ground and reduce the total number of satellites needed to blanket the country.

Independent observers, however, have documented a very different reality. Moscow‑born space journalist Anatoly Zak, who runs the RussianSpaceWeb.com portal, noted in August that many of the July‑launched satellites failed to reach their target orbit. Astronomer Jonathan McDowell, who tracks objects in space for the Harvard‑Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, produced a height‑versus‑time chart that shows most of the constellation lingering just above 500 kilometres, well below the planned 800 kilometres.

According to McDowell's data, the majority of the satellites sit at an altitude of 511 kilometres, with a handful stranded at 350‑360 kilometres and others as low as 290‑340 kilometres. Those at the lowest levels are already losing altitude, a trajectory that will inevitably lead to atmospheric re‑entry and burn‑up.

Russian open‑source intelligence channels have begun to acknowledge the difficulties. The Military Informant Telegram channel reported that Byuro‑1440 is "struggling with serious problems involving the second batch of satellites launched in July". The channel added that one of the seventeen satellites from the first batch has already fallen back to Earth, two are stuck at 350‑360 kilometres, and the remaining fifteen are stable at 511 kilometres.

The second batch fared even worse. All sixteen satellites are positioned significantly lower than the first batch, none having risen above 390 kilometres. Six of them are trapped between 290 and 340 kilometres and are already descending. The lower orbit reduces the coverage area of each satellite, meaning that the total number of satellites required to match Starlink's service would have to be dramatically higher, a prospect that Russia's modest production capacity cannot meet.

Starlink, operated by SpaceX, already has more than 10,000 operational satellites in orbit, with plans to launch thousands more. By contrast, Russia's public roadmap called for 156 Rassvet satellites by the end of 2026, 292 by 2027, 610 by 2028 and 900 by 2035. The current trajectory suggests that even the 156‑satellite target will be missed, leaving the system far too sparse to provide reliable broadband across the vast territories Russia occupies in Ukraine.

Implications for the war in Ukraine

From a military perspective, a fully functional Rassvet network would allow Russian forces to control drone operations over the entire occupied zone without relying on foreign satellite providers. At present, Ukrainian forces use Starlink‑linked drones to conduct reconnaissance and strike missions over their own territory and in occupied areas, benefitting from the high‑resolution video feed that the commercial constellation supplies.

If Russia could field an indigenous satellite system, it would be able to operate its own unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and command‑and‑control links across the whole of Ukraine, potentially neutralising the advantage that Starlink gives Kyiv. The technical setbacks mean that, for now, Russian forces remain dependent on older, less resilient communications infrastructure and on limited access to commercial satellite services that are increasingly being denied to Russian users.

Analysts stress that the failure of Rassvet‑3 does not alter the broader dynamics of the conflict, but it does remove a potential lever that Moscow hoped would tilt the balance in its favour. "The satellite issue is a side‑show compared with the ground battles," said a senior defence analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who asked to remain anonymous. "What matters more for civilians is the intensity of air raids, not whether Russia can stream video from its own satellites."

Escalating air raids on Kyiv and surrounding areas

While the satellite saga unfolds, Kyiv has been subjected to a relentless wave of Russian air attacks. In the latest 24‑hour period, at least twelve civilians were killed, including seven workers at a railway depot and four residents of the Boryspil suburb. The strikes combined Shahed‑type loitering munitions, Iskander ballistic missiles and, for the first time in months, a batch of North Korean‑made KN‑23 rockets.

Ukrainian air‑defence units reported intercepting ten of the incoming weapons, half of which were identified as Zircon hypersonic missiles, a system previously thought to be reserved for high‑value strategic targets. The remainder were missiles originally designed for the S‑400 air‑defence system, repurposed for strike missions.

Patriot batteries, which have been the backbone of Ukraine's high‑altitude defence, have faced ammunition shortages. On several occasions earlier this week, Ukrainian forces were unable to engage incoming missiles because the Patriot units had exhausted their stock of interceptors. The limited supply of Western‑provided missiles has forced Ukraine to prioritise the most threatening inbound threats, leaving some lower‑altitude drones to slip through.

In addition to the high‑tech weapons, Russian forces have continued to employ swarms of Shahed drones against logistics hubs. Video footage released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence showed a cluster of drones striking a warehouse in a Kyiv district, igniting fires and scattering debris. Residents captured on the ground described having only seconds to seek shelter before the explosions.

The attacks have also taken a toll on food supplies. Photographs posted on social media by Ukrainian journalists show supermarket shelves half‑empty, a direct consequence of Russian strikes on grain silos, food warehouses and transport corridors. Major Ukrainian retail chains have warned of prolonged disruptions, citing the destruction of storage facilities and the targeting of key railway nodes.

Ukrainian counter‑offensive gains near Lyman

Amid the air‑raid onslaught, Ukrainian ground forces have continued their push in the Donbas region, particularly around the city of Lyman. Russian officials have reluctantly admitted that the situation on the Lyman axis has deteriorated for Moscow.

Telegram channels that monitor the front line, such as Rybar, reported that Ukrainian units have taken positions in the Hrekivka area, are advancing south of Ridkodub and have been spotted in the village of Novoselivka, a settlement that Russian maps only a week ago placed firmly behind their lines.

Independent open‑source analysts corroborated these claims with satellite imagery showing fresh Ukrainian troop movements and the construction of temporary supply routes south of Lyman. The presence of ground‑based cargo drones delivering ammunition and provisions to Russian positions in the area was also noted, indicating that Ukrainian forces are successfully disrupting Russian logistics.

Russian state media, however, continue to claim modest territorial gains elsewhere. The defence ministry announced the capture of two villages north of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, Novopavlivka and Chervona Krynytsia, but independent verification has not materialised. Mapping experts from the OSINT community highlighted discrepancies between the Russian ministry's map, which shows a red‑shaded area of control extending deep into Ukrainian‑held territory, and maps produced by Ukrainian authorities and third‑party analysts.

Finnish think‑tank Black Bird Group, which monitors the conflict, noted that Russian claims of control over Novopavlivka are contradicted by on‑the‑ground footage showing Ukrainian flag‑bearers clearing the village earlier this summer. The pattern of Russian over‑statement mirrors earlier phases of the war, where propaganda victories have been used to mask operational setbacks.

Human cost and equipment losses

The Oryx open‑source project, which tracks visually confirmed losses, updated its database on 31 August. According to its figures, Russian forces have lost 24,052 pieces of heavy equipment since the start of the conflict, including 4,443 tanks, of which 3,348 were destroyed in combat. Ukrainian forces have lost 12,052 pieces of equipment, including 1,460 tanks, with 1,121 destroyed.

These numbers, while stark, only tell part of the story. Civilian casualties continue to rise, and the destruction of critical infrastructure, from logistics hubs to energy facilities, deepens the humanitarian crisis. The United Nations has warned that the cumulative effect of repeated attacks on food warehouses and transport routes could push millions of Ukrainians into food insecurity.

What the satellite failure means for Europe

Europe watches the Rassvet debacle with a mixture of relief and concern. On the one hand, the technical shortcomings mean that Russia is unlikely to achieve a satellite‑based communications monopoly over the occupied territories, preserving the relevance of Western satellite services for Ukrainian forces and civilians.

On the other hand, the incident underscores the growing importance of space assets in modern warfare. European governments have accelerated discussions on establishing a more resilient, EU‑wide satellite communications network that could serve both civilian and defence needs. The European Space Agency (ESA) has already signalled interest in expanding the Copernicus programme to include secure, high‑throughput communications for member states.

For European businesses, the situation highlights the risks of dependence on a single provider for critical connectivity. Companies operating in the region have been urged to diversify their satellite links, incorporating both commercial constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb, as well as terrestrial fibre where possible.

Looking ahead

Byuro‑1440 is expected to attempt a series of corrective launches later this year, aiming to raise the orbit of the existing satellites using onboard propulsion or to replace the under‑performing units with new hardware. Whether the bureau can overcome the engineering challenges in time to affect the war's trajectory remains uncertain.

In the meantime, Ukrainian authorities continue to call for increased delivery of air‑defence missiles from Western allies, arguing that each intercepted missile saves lives and preserves critical infrastructure. The United States and several EU members have pledged additional Patriot interceptors and modernised air‑defence systems, but logistical bottlenecks and production limits mean that supplies will arrive gradually.

For the people of Kyiv and the wider Ukrainian population, the daily reality is a mix of fear from the skies and hope from the ground. While the Rassvet‑3 constellation sputters, the resilience of Ukrainian civil society, demonstrated by rapid repairs to damaged warehouses, community food distribution networks and the continued operation of essential services, remains a testament to the determination to withstand both kinetic and digital assaults.

As the conflict drags on, the battle for the electromagnetic spectrum will likely become as contested as the front lines themselves. Europe's response, both in terms of policy and technology, will shape not only the outcome of this war but also the future architecture of security in the digital age.