Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to break a decades‑long political taboo in the eastern German state of Saxony‑Anhalt. Polls for the September 6 election show the party at more than 40 % of the vote, a level that could allow it to form a government without the support of any other party if enough rivals fall below the 5 % entry threshold.

The prospect of an AfD‑led administration would mark the first time since the end of World War II that a party classified by the domestic intelligence service as "far‑right extremist" could head a German state. The party's regional candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has built a campaign around a rhetoric of "cleansing" and promises to overturn the European Union, deport millions of people with a migration background and resume gas trade with Russia.

Why the surge matters for workers and households

For ordinary citizens in Saxony‑Anhalt, the stakes are concrete. The state has seen its population shrink from 2.8 million in 1990 to just over 2.1 million today, a loss of roughly a quarter of its residents. Demographic decline has hit rural districts hardest: schools close, local doctors disappear, public transport runs only once a day and small businesses struggle to stay afloat.

"When the young leave, the whole social fabric unravels," says Henriette Quade, an independent member of the state parliament and co‑founder of the anti‑right‑wing initiative Halle gegen Rechts. "People ask, 'who is looking after us?' and the answer is often 'no one'."

That sense of abandonment fuels the AfD's appeal. Economist Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), notes that the party's support is highest in districts where public services have been cut back and where unemployment, though lower than in the early 1990s, remains above the national average.

"The AfD thrives on the vacuum left by shrinking state capacity," Fratzscher explains. "Their promises of quick fixes, free sausages, beer at rallies, simple slogans, mask a programme that would likely worsen the very problems they exploit."

What the AfD proposes and why it worries experts

AfD's state platform includes a series of measures that clash with German constitutional guarantees and EU law. It calls for the abolition of the right to asylum, a competence reserved for the federal level, and for the creation of segregated school classes for migrant and disabled children. The party also wants to rewrite curricula to feature "more Bismarck, less Hitler", a move that would spark fierce debate about historical memory.

Energy policy is another flashpoint. Saxony‑Anhalt generates about 60 % of its electricity from renewables, yet the AfD proposes to halt new renewable projects and revive coal‑fired power plants. Critics argue that such a shift would increase carbon emissions, raise energy costs for households and jeopardise Germany's climate commitments.

On immigration, the AfD's plan to deport "millions", including naturalised German citizens, would not only breach EU free‑movement rules but also risk a wave of legal challenges and a loss of skilled workers needed in a region already facing labour shortages.

Financially, the party's promises appear unrealistic. "None of these pledges are backed by a credible budget," Fratzscher says. "The state would have to borrow heavily or cut essential services to fund them, which would hit the most vulnerable households the hardest."

Local reactions on the ground

At a campaign rally in the village of Klein Wanzleben, rain poured down as several hundred supporters huddled under a stage roof. AfD MP Götz Frömming declared, "The dark clouds over Saxony‑Anhalt are the harbingers of a cleansing storm that will sweep away the federal government and the old parties."

Outside the venue, 17‑year‑old Erik and his mother held a sign reading "No votes for Nazis". Erik, one of only two students in his class opposed to the AfD, blames the party's rise on the failure of the Social Democrats (SPD) and Christian Democrats (CDU) to address local concerns. "The SPD haven't done anything, the CDU haven't done anything, and the GDR was crap too," he says.

Other residents expressed a mixture of anger, resignation and pragmatic opposition. A retired train driver in nearby Haldensleben admitted he would vote for the AfD "out of pure anger" after experiencing both socialism and capitalism, while a self‑employed woman warned that the party's anti‑war stance would not stop the flow of money to Ukraine, but would instead punish ordinary pensioners.

Young supporters, many wearing clothing from brands with neo‑Nazi coded designs, cheered slogans about "taking the country back". One teenage girl, holding a lanyard with the party's logo, shrugged when asked why she voted for the AfD: "I don't know, everything!"

Historical context and the "firewall" rule

Since German reunification, Saxony‑Anhalt has been governed by centre‑right coalitions of the CDU and SPD. An informal "firewall", a political consensus that mainstream parties would not cooperate with the AfD, has kept the party out of government at both state and federal levels.

That consensus is now under strain. In the last decade, the CDU has softened its stance on migration, echoing AfD talking points in parliamentary debates. Quade argues that this "normalisation" of far‑right rhetoric has eroded the firewall's effectiveness.

Legal attempts to ban the AfD have so far failed. In 2019, a court ruled that the Thuringian AfD leader Björn Höcke could be described as fascist, but no nationwide ban has been pursued. The party's classification as "far‑right extremist" by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution remains, yet the political establishment has struggled to translate that designation into decisive action.

Implications for the European Union and broader trends

If the AfD were to form a government in Saxony‑Anhalt, it would send a signal to other right‑wing populist movements across Europe that electoral success is possible even in regions with strong democratic traditions. The party's anti‑EU stance, calling for a "gutting" of the Union, aligns with similar narratives in Italy's Lega, France's National Rally and Hungary's Fidesz.

For EU policy, an AfD‑led state could become a testing ground for anti‑EU measures, from rejecting EU climate funding to opposing sanctions on Russia. While foreign policy remains a federal competence, the symbolic weight of a state openly defying Brussels could embolden other regional actors.

Economically, the party's push to restart gas trade with Russia would clash with the EU's coordinated sanctions regime, potentially creating legal disputes and complicating the bloc's energy transition strategy.

What unions and civil‑society groups say

Trade unions have warned that the AfD's policies would undermine workers' rights and job security. The German Trade Union Confederation (DGB) issued a statement saying that "the AfD's anti‑social agenda threatens the hard‑won gains of the post‑war social market economy."

Human‑rights organisations point to a rise in hate crimes in Saxony‑Anhalt, noting that the political climate has become more permissive of racist, antisemitic and queer‑phobic violence. "When extremist rhetoric moves from the streets into parliament, it legitimises attacks on minorities," says a spokesperson for the Amadeu Antonio Foundation.

Local anti‑extremism initiatives, such as Halle gegen Rechts, are mobilising volunteers to monitor hate incidents and provide support to victims. Quade stresses that "the battle is not only at the ballot box; it is also on the streets, in schools and in community centres."

What the numbers say

Data from the Federal Statistical Office shows that Saxony‑Anhalt's unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 12 % in the early 2000s to around 5.5 % in 2023, yet the region still lags behind the national average of 5 %. Median disposable income is roughly 10 % lower than in the western states, and the proportion of households living in poverty is higher than the German average.

Demographic projections indicate that by 2035 the state could lose another 200 000 residents if current out‑migration trends continue. The loss of young, skilled workers is a key driver of the AfD's narrative that "the East has been left behind".

Potential paths forward

Analysts suggest three scenarios after the September 6 vote. First, the AfD could fall short of the 5 % threshold, preserving the traditional centre‑right coalition. Second, the party could win a plurality but be forced into a minority government, limiting its ability to implement its radical agenda. Third, and most concerning for democratic watchdogs, the AfD could secure an outright majority, allowing it to appoint a state premier and shape policy without coalition constraints.

In the latter case, the federal government would face a constitutional dilemma: while the German constitution guarantees freedom of political association, it also obliges the state to protect the democratic order. The Federal Constitutional Court could be called upon to assess whether any AfD legislation violates fundamental rights.

For now, civil‑society groups are urging voters to consider the long‑term costs of an AfD government, from potential loss of EU funding to a possible increase in hate‑driven violence. "We need a realistic plan for the future, not slogans about 'cleansing'," says Quade.

Conclusion

The upcoming election in Saxony‑Anhalt is more than a regional contest; it is a test of Germany's post‑war consensus that mainstream parties will not share power with extremist forces. The AfD's surge reflects deep‑seated frustrations over demographic decline, economic stagnation and perceived neglect by Berlin and the federal capitals of the west.

Yet the party's programme offers no viable solutions to those problems. Instead, it proposes policies that would likely deepen economic disparity, alienate migrant communities and undermine the rule of law. The outcome will shape not only the lives of the 2.1 million people in Saxony‑Anhalt, but also the tone of European politics at a time when democratic resilience is being tested across the continent.