Germany’s second‑largest grocery chain, Rewe, has confirmed a shortage of tofu in its stores. The shortfall is not due to a scarcity of soybeans but to limited processing capacity, as producers require several months to install new equipment and production lines.

Rising demand and supply bottlenecks

Tofu sales in Germany have roughly doubled over the past three to four years, with a further increase of about 30 % expected in 2025. Similar growth has been recorded across Europe: sales of tofu, tempeh and seitan rose by roughly 30 % in Germany, 27 % in the Netherlands and 24 % in Italy during the same period.

The surge in consumer interest has placed pressure on retail staff, who must manage customer frustration and stock replenishment, while processing plant workers are urged to accelerate capacity expansion without compromising quality.

Nutritional context

Tofu, a product that originated in East Asia centuries ago, provides a complete protein with low saturated fat and a predominance of unsaturated fats. However, experts note that tofu contains less fibre than whole soybeans.

Nutritionists stress the broader benefits of legumes: soy plants form a symbiotic relationship with nitrogen‑fixing bacteria, reducing the need for synthetic fertilisers, and typically require four to six times fewer pesticides than other oilseed crops. Nevertheless, soy cultivation is water‑intensive and many EU fields rely on irrigation, raising concerns about drought risk as the climate warms.

European soy production and policy

During the 2024‑2025 season, EU farms produced about three million tonnes of soybeans, while imports of soybeans and soy‑meal protein totalled roughly 13.4 million tonnes, representing a 94 % dependence on foreign supply. Approximately 70 % of the EU’s cereal, oilseed and pulse protein is used as animal feed.

Data from the World Wildlife Fund indicate that producing 100 g of chicken breast or salmon each requires around 95‑96 g of soy feed. Trase data link Brazilian soy destined for the EU to about 13,600 ha of deforestation each year between 2021 and 2023.

Post‑World War II agricultural policy in Europe encouraged cereal production, while the United States specialised in soy, reinforcing the import dependence. A 2023 study co‑authored by agronomy expert Nicolas Guilpart suggests that Europe could achieve at least 50 % soy self‑sufficiency, although climate change may shift viable growing zones northward and eastward.

Researcher Jean‑Malo Couzigou is investigating under‑exploited legume varieties that could thrive under future climate conditions, offering a potential route to greater domestic protein production.

The European Commission’s Protein Action Plan, unveiled on 7 July, aims to raise the share of EU‑grown oilseed and protein‑crop protein in animal feed from 25.8 % to 35 % by 2035. While the plan recognises the need for processing facilities, storage capacity and reliable buyers, its focus remains on feed rather than direct human consumption.

The European Vegetarian Union has criticised the plan for neglecting the food side of protein use, arguing that Europe needs dedicated support for legumes intended for human diets, stable demand from public procurement and targeted promotional campaigns.

Public institutions in the EU spend about €45 billion annually on food procurement, providing roughly 54 million meals per day, yet legumes feature in only a small portion of those menus. The EU’s agri‑food promotion budget of about €200 million per year does not include a specific campaign for legumes, and the Common Agricultural Policy’s eco‑schemes for legumes such as peas, lupins and field peas represent a modest share of overall farm support.

A recent FAO report notes that the CAP’s emphasis on meat and grain makes legumes less attractive to farmers and more expensive for consumers. Climate‑induced heat and drought threaten legume yields, and current subsidies do not fully offset these risks. French pea acreage, for example, has fallen from 700,000 ha to about 100,000 ha over the past three decades.

Implications for consumers and retailers

The tofu shortage is already increasing workloads for retail staff and may lead to higher prices, affecting low‑income households that rely on affordable plant‑based proteins. Consumers could also feel the impact of Europe’s heavy reliance on imported soy, which makes the food system vulnerable to geopolitical, trade or climate disruptions in producing regions.

In Latvia, OG Tofu – the country’s largest tofu producer operated by Mārtiņš Mičulis – has saturated the local market and supplies most vegan and vegetarian restaurants in Riga. Mičulis observes that many restaurants remain uncertain about how to incorporate tofu into their menus, limiting broader consumer uptake.

Recommendations

Experts recommend expanding domestic processing capacity, aligning subsidies with protein‑crop production for food rather than feed, strengthening public procurement of legumes, and launching consumer education campaigns to increase awareness of plant‑based protein options.