Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to break a decades‑long political taboo in the eastern German state of Saxony‑Anhalt. Polls for the 6 September state election put the party at more than 40 % of the vote, a level that could allow it to form a government on its own if other parties fall below the 5 % threshold required for parliamentary entry. The prospect has reignited fears of a "cleansing" rhetoric first heard at a campaign rally in the village of Klein Wanzleben, where AfD MP Götz Frömming warned of a storm that would sweep away the federal government and "old parties".

Why the AfD is gaining ground

Economists and political scientists point to a combination of demographic decline, shrinking public services and a sense of abandonment after reunification as the engine behind the surge. Saxony‑Anhalt's population has fallen from 2.8 million in 1990 to just over 2.1 million today, a loss of a quarter of its residents. The exodus is most acute in rural districts where schools close, doctors retire, and public transport runs only once a day. Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research, says that "where people have actively moved away, the AfD's share is especially high".

For many voters, the party's promise of simple answers feels like a lifeline. At a fairground in Klein Wanzleben, families with young children cheered as speakers promised to "take our country back". The event was peppered with free sausages, beer and merchandise bearing slogans such as "White Lives Matter". Young people like 17‑year‑old Erik and his mother held a sign reading "No votes for Nazis". Erik, one of only two students in his class opposed to the AfD, blames "the propaganda" and the failure of the Social Democrats (SPD) and Christian Democrats (CDU) to address local concerns.

In nearby Haldensleben, a retired train driver admitted he would vote for the AfD "out of anger", having lived under both socialism and capitalism and fearing a return to the former. A self‑employed woman, meanwhile, expressed frustration at pension cuts and the perceived waste of public money on Ukraine, arguing that the AfD should be given a chance to change the status quo.

Policy platform that clashes with regional realities

The AfD's state programme is starkly at odds with Saxony‑Anhalt's energy transition and demographic profile. The party proposes to halt new renewable projects and revive coal power, despite the fact that the state already generates around 60 % of its electricity from wind and solar. It also calls for the abolition of the fundamental right to asylum, a measure that can only be enacted at the federal level, and for segregated school classes for migrant and disabled children. Critics note that such policies would likely deter investment and exacerbate the very demographic decline the party claims to want to reverse.

Other proposals include a "welcome bonus" for children born to German citizens, a replacement of the public broadcaster with a state‑controlled outlet, and a curriculum shift to feature "more Bismarck, less Hitler". None of these ideas have been backed by concrete financing plans, a point highlighted by Fratzscher who says the AfD's promises are "not properly financed".

Historical context and the "firewall"

Since reunification, the so‑called "firewall" (Brandmauer), an informal agreement among mainstream parties to exclude the AfD from coalition talks, has kept the far‑right out of government. The rule emerged after the party's Saxony‑Anhalt branch was classified as "far‑right extremist" by the domestic intelligence agency for its pursuit of an ethnically homogeneous society.

Should the AfD win an outright majority, it would become the first extremist party to head a German state government since 1945, breaking a post‑war consensus that has underpinned German democracy. In 2019, a court ruled that Thuringian AfD leader Björn Höcke could be described as fascist, underscoring the party's extremist reputation.

Political scientist Nicolas Spohn of Otto von Guericke University explains that the legacy of reunification still haunts the east. "Until 1990, Magdeburg was a city of heavy industry. After privatisation, many jobs vanished, and the experience of not being in control of one's fate sticks with people emotionally." This historical grievance fuels the narrative that "the West screwed the East over", a theme repeatedly echoed at AfD rallies.

Impact on workers and public services

Trade unions and civil‑society groups warn that an AfD government would jeopardise workers' rights and public services. The party's stance on ending sanctions and restarting gas trade with Russia could undermine EU energy policy and expose households to volatile prices. Its anti‑migration platform, which calls for the deportation of millions, would likely breach EU law and could trigger legal battles that drain public resources.

Victim‑support services in Saxony‑Anhalt have reported a rise in racist, antisemitic and queerphobic incidents, a trend they attribute to the mainstreaming of extremist rhetoric. Henriette Quade, an independent MP and co‑founder of the anti‑right‑wing initiative Halle gegen Rechts, says the "firewall was never seriously drawn" and that the CDU has gradually adopted AfD talking points, especially on migration.

Local councils already face practical dilemmas. In some districts, refusing to work with the AfD would mean losing funding for kindergarten renovations or other essential projects. This pressure forces even moderate parties to compromise, normalising extremist demands.

European implications

The outcome in Saxony‑Anhalt will be watched across the EU. A right‑wing government in a German state could embolden similar movements in other member states, from Italy's Lega to France's National Rally. It would also test the EU's commitment to upholding democratic standards, especially if the state attempts to implement policies that contravene EU law on asylum and anti‑discrimination.

Moreover, the AfD's call to resume coal power clashes with the EU's Green Deal targets. If a German state were to roll back renewable investments, it could jeopardise the bloc's collective climate ambitions and create a precedent for other regions to resist the energy transition.

What comes next?

The vote on 6 September will determine whether the AfD can convert its poll lead into a governing mandate. If it falls short of an outright majority, coalition negotiations will begin, and the "firewall" may be tested once more. Mainstream parties have signalled they will not enter a formal coalition with the AfD, but they may be forced to tolerate its influence in regional parliaments.

For residents like Erik, the stakes are personal. "If the AfD wins, things could get pretty bad here," he says, hinting at a possible decision to leave the region after finishing school. The sentiment is echoed by many young people who feel that the political establishment has failed to deliver jobs, affordable housing and reliable public services.

Union representatives argue that the solution lies not in scapegoating migrants or dismantling EU frameworks, but in investing in rural infrastructure, improving broadband access, and supporting small‑scale enterprises. They point to successful EU cohesion programmes that have revitalised similar regions in Poland and the Czech Republic.

As the campaign season draws to a close, the contrast between the AfD's populist promises and the concrete needs of a shrinking, ageing population becomes ever clearer. Whether the electorate will choose a party that offers "simple solutions" at the cost of democratic norms and economic stability remains to be seen.

What is certain is that the result will reverberate beyond Saxony‑Anhalt. A breakthrough for the AfD would challenge the post‑war consensus that has kept extremist forces at the margins of German politics, and could reshape the balance of power within the European Union at a time when unity on climate, security and migration is more crucial than ever.