Ukraine possesses roughly 32 million hectares of land suitable for agriculture and about 26 million hectares are currently cultivated. That cultivated area is larger than the combined cultivated areas of France, Spain and Poland and would represent more than a quarter of the EU’s total arable land if the country becomes a member.

The country’s soil, known as chernozem or black earth, is highly fertile. Scientists at the Khortytsia National Reserve report that the humus layer can reach up to one metre thick in some locations, giving the soil resilience to intensive cultivation and supporting high yields over time.

Despite the Russian invasion that began in 2022 Ukraine has built a strong agricultural logistics system. Russian forces temporarily shut the port of Odesa, which previously handled more than 80 % of Ukraine’s grain exports. Grain shipments were rerouted through other sea and rail routes, often with assistance from Romania and Poland. The former agrarian minister described the logistics effort as a new front line and said grain has become a symbol of survival for Ukrainians.

The agricultural chapter is regarded as the most sensitive part of the enlargement negotiations. A 2024 study by Sciences Po researcher Elsa Régnier notes that the Common Agricultural Policy consumes a large share of the EU budget and that new members must fit into a system already strained by market volatility, climate goals and social expectations. The European Commission has warned that Ukraine and Moldova will need time and effort to bring their policies into line with EU standards.

When Spain and Portugal joined the EU in 1986 the Union’s farmed area grew by about 30 %. The 2004‑2007 enlargement of Central and Eastern European states added roughly 44 % to the farmed area. Those past enlargements required major CAP reforms, including the introduction of area‑based payments and a phased rollout of subsidies for new members.

Ukraine’s agricultural sector is still based on Soviet‑era land ownership, featuring large state farms and a small private sector that does not yet meet EU regulations. This structure will need substantial reform before accession.

Existing farmers express concern that a minor adjustment to the CAP would not be enough. The head of supply chains at the French think‑tank Agrillées warns that Ukraine’s grain volume could upset market balances, lower European farmer prices and increase imports that compete with local producers. In 2022 a Romanian farmer led a tractor blockade of the main road to Bucharest demanding protection from what he called unfair competition. He later said that compliance with the rules would be acceptable but still worries about market destabilisation. Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have temporarily banned Ukrainian grain imports to protect their domestic agriculture.

Brussels is considering a tiered subsidy model that would give higher direct payments to newer members while gradually integrating them into market‑oriented mechanisms. Another proposal would tie part of Ukraine’s subsidies to climate‑friendly practices to promote sustainable grain production. Union officials say any reform must balance a level playing field for existing farmers, food security for the enlarged Union and compliance with the Green Deal.

Ukraine’s current farming relies heavily on synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, which could clash with the EU target of cutting agricultural emissions by 55 % by 2030. If Ukrainian grain enters the EU without restrictions consumer food prices could fall, providing relief amid inflation. That price benefit may be offset by lower incomes for European farmers, many of whom report real‑wage declines and insecure contracts. The European Federation of Food, Agriculture and Tourism Trade Unions has called for a just transition that protects jobs while encouraging investment in modern, climate‑compatible farming.

Negotiations on Ukraine’s EU accession are expected to intensify over the next months, with the agricultural chapter likely to dominate the talks. The EU’s ability to design a CAP reform that accommodates Ukraine’s size while preserving the livelihoods of current farmers will test Union cohesion and its commitment to a socially balanced market. A farmer from Lviv joked that the challenges are not harder than war or the Holodomor and said they will adapt.