Friedrich Merz entered the weekend with a clear objective: to halt the drift of voters towards the far‑right and to demonstrate that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) could still win elections. The outcome of the state polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania on 20 September suggests that goal may be out of reach.

Two weeks after the Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a decisive victory in Saxony‑Anhalt, a YouGov poll released on 15 September projected the AfD at 29 % of the national vote, a full 12 points ahead of the CDU, which lingered at 17 %. The poll also showed the Greens at 16 % and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) at 13 %.

AfD's growing appeal and the CDU's decline

The AfD, classified as an extremist movement by German intelligence, has capitalised on discontent over the cost of living, energy prices and perceived failures of the coalition government. Co‑chair Alice Weidel seized on the CDU's slide, declaring that the party would "never win another election" while the AfD would continue to expand.

Even as the far‑right celebrates its Saxony‑Anhalt win, the CDU managed a local victory in Lower Saxony, finishing ahead of the AfD and behind the SPD. Yet that modest success has done little to stem the tide of criticism within Merz's own ranks. Party members in Saxony‑Anhalt reportedly refused to feature his image on campaign material, an unusual move that underscores internal frustration.

Public sentiment turns sharply against the chancellor

Merz's personal approval has plummeted to historic lows. An INSA survey conducted over the weekend found that 78 % of respondents do not want him to remain chancellor, while only 10 % expressed support. Among CDU voters, the picture is similarly bleak: 58 % would prefer a different leader, 36 % back Merz and the remainder are undecided.

These figures echo a broader trend of declining confidence in the government's handling of the economy. Germany's industrial flagship Volkswagen has been grappling with production cuts, while the country faces hybrid attacks from Russia and a sluggish recovery from the pandemic‑induced recession. For many workers, the combination of rising energy bills and stagnant wages fuels a sense that the establishment is out of touch.

Trade unions have seized on the data, warning that a continued swing towards the AfD could destabilise the social partnership model that underpins Germany's labour market. The German Trade Union Confederation (DGB) called for "a clear policy response that puts workers' purchasing power back at the centre of government action".

What the numbers mean for Europe

Germany's political trajectory has implications far beyond its borders. As Europe's largest economy, a shift towards the far‑right could embolden similar movements in neighbouring states, potentially complicating the EU's climate and fiscal agendas. A weakened CDU also raises questions about the future of the centre‑right bloc that has traditionally anchored the European People's Party in the European Parliament.

European Commission officials have not commented directly on the German polls, but the institution has repeatedly warned that democratic backsliding and extremist gains threaten the Union's cohesion. A more fragmented German parliament could make it harder for Berlin to meet EU targets on emissions, defence spending and fiscal consolidation.

Merz's options and the road ahead

Within the CDU, a growing chorus of voices is urging Merz to step aside. Senior figures have hinted that a leadership contest could be triggered before the next federal election, though no formal motion has yet been tabled. Merz, who took over the party in May 2025, has so far resisted calls for resignation, arguing that stability is needed during a period of external pressure.

Analysts suggest that the chancellor's best chance of regaining ground lies in a rapid policy shift towards affordable energy, stronger support for low‑income households and a clear stance against extremist rhetoric. However, critics argue that such a pivot may be too little, too late, especially as the AfD continues to frame itself as the only party willing to confront "the elite's failures".

As voters head to the polls on Sunday, the results will provide a barometer of whether the CDU can still rally its traditional base or if the AfD's surge marks a more permanent realignment. For European observers, the outcome will be a key indicator of the health of centrist politics in the continent's most influential nation.