Ukrainian drone strikes have reduced Russia’s refining capacity to a level not seen since the early 2000s, creating a fuel shortage that now affects roughly 50 million people, according to a Financial Times analysis.

Key attacks

On a Tuesday morning a drone hit the Gazprom Neftekhim refinery in Salavat, Bashkortostan – about 1,300 km from the combat zone – igniting a fire that destroyed a main processing unit and halted output at a plant that in 2024 handled 7.2 million tonnes of crude, roughly 2.7 % of Russia’s total capacity.

A fire also damaged the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai. In addition, a precision strike disabled the primary AVT‑5 unit at Rosneft’s Syzran refinery; the unit can process 7,100 tonnes per day and, according to Reuters and The Insider, will not be back in service until the end of the month.

Scale of the shortfall

EA Analytics data show that over the last month Russian refineries averaged 3.91 million barrels per day, the lowest figure since March 2005 and 1.4 million barrels per day lower than the same period a year earlier. The combined effect of the attacks creates a daily deficit of up to 45,000 tonnes of gasoline.

Economic fallout

Authorities have imposed fuel‑sale limits in 88 of Russia’s 89 regions, exempting only Chukotka. In Crimea several districts have been without electricity for almost two weeks because of the fuel shortfall. Diesel prices for road‑transport companies have risen by 75.8 % and bitumen prices by 45.5 %.

Restrictions on diesel exports and higher gasoline imports have lowered fuel quality, leading to increased engine wear and higher maintenance costs for motorists and fleets. Road freight carries about 70 % of Russia’s cargo, so the shortage is expected to push up food prices, construction costs and overall living expenses.

A former energy minister said the budget deficit for the first five months exceeded 6 trillion roubles and grew to nearly 8 trillion roubles by 26 June, above the planned 5‑trillion‑rouble shortfall. The deficit is attributed to falling oil revenues, reduced refining margins and subsidies for domestic fuel prices. Global oil prices fell after a tentative United States‑Iran truce, limiting the Kremlin’s ability to compensate for lost refining income.

State economists now forecast annual GDP growth of about 0.1 %, down from a previous 1.3 % estimate before the drone campaign intensified.

Political and strategic dimensions

Ukraine’s strategy targets Russian refineries to weaken Moscow’s war‑fighting ability by disrupting fuel logistics. Ukrainian officials claim the strikes have hit every major refinery in European Russia and, for the first time, the large Omsk refinery in Siberia, over 2,500 km from the front.

Polish think‑tank OSW calls the situation the most serious fuel crisis in Russian history. Ukrainian military analysts warn that ongoing attacks will keep repair work delayed because many replacement parts come from Western firms now barred from exporting to Russia.

Opinion polls cited by OSW indicate President Vladimir Putin’s approval is at its lowest in five years. Economist Vladimir Milov told The Insider the situation is a “black swan”. Yandex search data show a rise in queries such as “how to make your own petrol”. The Kremlin, via the state outlet The Bell, stated that fuel prices are not “rising” but merely “changing”.

International response and future outlook

At a Paris summit a coalition of ten nations – France, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and Ukraine – announced a programme called Freya to develop a cheaper alternative to the Patriot air‑defence system. The Freya system will be based on Ukraine’s FP‑7.x missile and is intended to replace dwindling PAC‑2 GEM‑T interceptors. Participating defence companies include Diehl, Thales, HENSOLDT, Saab, Kongsberg, Leonardo, MBDA, Eurosam, Safran and Destinus. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the first operational Freya units could be deployed as early as this year.

United Nations data for June recorded 265 civilian deaths and 1,816 injuries from Russian attacks, the highest monthly toll since the early months of the invasion.

OSW analysts warn the fuel crisis will worsen unless Ukraine sustains its drone campaign. The coalition’s ability to provide air‑defence systems may influence the scale of Russian strikes, as Moscow increasingly relies on ballistic missiles to make up for reduced air superiority. A prolonged Russian fuel shortage could force Moscow to look for new crude‑export markets, potentially shifting global oil flows and affecting European energy prices.

Success of Ukrainian drone tactics may prompt other countries to invest in similar low‑cost, high‑impact weapons, shaping future asymmetric warfare.