Operational overview

Ukraine concluded a 40‑day offensive on Tuesday that was launched in late June with the aim of pressuring Russia to end the war. The operation was described as targeting Russian logistics, industry and shipping and no timetable for a cease‑fire was set.

Ukrainian forces employed long‑range weapons up to about 2,500 km from the border, striking a refinery in Omsk and facilities in the Samara and Volga regions.

Impact on the Russian oil sector

Bloomberg recorded eighteen refinery attacks in July, one more than the previous high set in May. EA Analytics reported that Russian refineries processed 3.6 million barrels of oil per day in July, the lowest monthly level since May 2002 and roughly one‑third below the 5.3‑5.6 million‑barrel average for 2020‑2025.

The Moscow Times reported long queues at fuel stations and temporary purchase limits in several Russian regions. Some refineries resumed operation by early August, easing the worst shortages and allowing the oil sector to stabilise as damaged plants are repaired or bypassed.

Attacks on logistics and commercial targets

Ukrainian drones and missiles also struck logistics that supply Russian forces in occupied southern Ukraine. Data from the Ukrainian General Staff’s Unmanned Systems Forces, confirmed by French OSINT analyst Clément Molin, show that 656 Russian trucks were destroyed in July, about twenty‑one per day, bringing documented vehicle losses to roughly 1,500 over the three‑month period since the campaign began.

The independent Conflict Intelligence Team assessed that the strikes have not materially disrupted frontline supply lines and that medium‑range attacks have not reduced fighting, while Russian air activity increased in July.

Ukrainian operations further targeted the Russian e‑commerce retailer Wildberries. An OSINT account named cyber_boroshno released an infographic indicating that twelve of the twenty‑five largest Wildberries sites were destroyed or heavily damaged, accounting for fifty‑six per cent of the total warehouse floor area. Analysts debate the motive, suggesting possible financial pressure on VTB Bank or a psychological impact on Russian civilians, but Kyiv has not confirmed any motive and the practical effect on Russia’s banking system remains unclear.

Russian response and civilian impact

Russian officials have framed the campaign as part of a phase of destroying civilisations. There is no indication that President Vladimir Putin is moving toward a cease‑fire. Russian air defences shot down a Ukrainian drone that had struck a beach in a Russian city, killing seven civilians.

The Conflict Intelligence Team observed an increase in Russian air sorties in July, indicating a willingness to absorb losses and keep pressure on Ukrainian positions. The Russian defence ministry has not publicly altered its strategic objectives.

European energy markets and policy reaction

The reduction in Russian refining capacity has affected European energy markets. Russia provides about fifteen per cent of the EU’s crude oil imports, and lower output can tighten supply and raise prices. European policymakers are urging diversification of energy sources in response to the reduced Russian fuel supply.

Higher fuel prices can erode real wages for low‑income households; trade unions have called for stronger consumer protection and accelerated renewable‑energy investment.

Strategic assessment

Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said the strike campaign will continue beyond the forty‑day period and emphasised results over duration.

The European Commission, acting under the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, condemns attacks on civilian infrastructure but recognises Ukraine’s right to self‑defence and calls for compliance with international humanitarian law.

EU governments note that prolonged low Russian oil production could push Moscow to seek Asian markets, potentially reshaping global energy flows and raising questions about cross‑border trade and the protection of European businesses linked to Russia.

The offensive demonstrates Ukraine’s newly acquired capability to strike deep inside Russian territory, a capability not present a year earlier. The record number of refinery attacks and the decline in Russian oil processing show a measurable impact on Moscow’s economy.

However, the campaign did not achieve its stated political aim of forcing Russia to negotiate a cease‑fire within the forty‑day window. No cease‑fire offer has been made by Putin, and the modest effect on frontline logistics suggests that Moscow’s strategic calculus remains unchanged.