Russian troops are massing on the outskirts of Dobropillia, a strategic town in the Donbas, in an effort to seize the urban centre before the autumn foliage falls, Ukrainian officials said on Thursday.

General Denys Prokopenko, commander of the Azov 1st Corps of Ukraine's National Guard, told state media that Russian forces have deployed three combined‑arms armies, the 8th, the 41st and the 51st, together with the 76th Airborne Division and naval infantry units. He warned that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian personnel on the front line is roughly six to one, and that about a third of Russia's 1,200‑strong Rubicon drone‑operator crews are now concentrated in the sector.

Scale of the Russian build‑up

According to Prokopenko, the front line stretching around Dobropillia spans roughly 30 kilometres. Within that corridor, Russian units are fielding a mix of mechanised infantry, armoured brigades and specialised drone teams. The Rubicon centre, which Prokopenko described as "Russia's most effective hub for drone operators", has been earmarked for intensive use against Ukrainian defences.

French open‑source analyst Clement Molin corroborated the picture, posting satellite‑derived maps that show the 41st Combined Arms Army redeployed from Pokrovsk to the Dobropillia axis, joining the 8th and 51st armies already present in the area. Molin's analysis also highlighted smaller Russian formations, the 70th and 6th Motorised Rifle Divisions, operating east of Kramatorsk, while the southern flank of the Donbas now sees three full armies pressing forward.

Russian state channel Rybar reported that Russian aviation and artillery are targeting the town itself, and that Russian fighters have entered the settlement bearing the same name as the city. The channel claimed "tactical successes" in the village of Dobropillia, suggesting that Russian units have already breached the outer defensive ring.

Ukrainian response and casualties

Prokopenko said Ukrainian forces are losing ground despite fierce resistance. He estimated Russian daily casualties on the Dobropillia front at 123 soldiers in July and 135 in August, roughly one‑tenth of all Russian losses recorded by Ukrainian intelligence for those months.

Sergeant Dmytro Davydenko of the National Guard's Svoboda Battalion told public broadcaster Suspilne that Russian attempts to break through have surged in recent weeks. He described the enemy's use of "green cover", dense vegetation that offers concealment, to mass forces for a larger offensive as the weather turns colder.

"The enemy is trying to penetrate the city at the cost of enormous losses, taking advantage of the 'green cover' to build up sufficient forces for the phase when adverse weather sets in and visibility deteriorates," Davydenko said. He added that the volume of Russian mobile groups moving in the sector has increased dramatically, stretching Ukrainian command and control to its limits.

Ukrainian soldiers on the ground have also posted footage of intense fighting. One video, shared by the 4th Operational Brigade Rubizh, shows a soldier laying down suppressive fire with a machine gun from a trench, buying time for FPV drone operators to strike the advancing Russian infantry.

Why Dobropillia matters

The push on Dobropillia is not an isolated manoeuvre. Ukrainian officials argue that Russian commanders are seeking to encircle the larger urban agglomerations of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk from the south, after their attempts to attack those cities directly were repelled with heavy losses.

General Andriy Biletskyi, commander of the 3rd Army Corps and the Centre army group, recently announced the liberation of villages north of Lyman, a development that may have prompted Russian forces to shift focus toward Dobropillia as a new axis of advance.

By securing Dobropillia before the autumn leaf‑fall, Russian planners hope to exploit the reduced visibility and the difficulty of moving heavy armour through forested terrain. Prokopenko warned that Russian tanks have been retrofitted with active‑protection systems and electronic counter‑measures, making them harder to neutralise with conventional anti‑tank weapons.

Ukrainian counter‑measures

Ukrainian forces have increasingly relied on drone warfare to offset the numerical disparity. Interceptor drones have been recorded shooting down Russian Shahed and Geran drones over Odesa, while ground‑based FPV drones provide real‑time targeting for artillery and mortars.

In addition to aerial assets, Ukrainian infantry continues to play a decisive role. The Rubizh video illustrates how a single machine‑gunner can delay a Russian assault long enough for drone strikes to be coordinated, a tactic that has become a hallmark of the Ukrainian defence.

Ukraine's National Guard has also been rotating fresh troops into the sector, attempting to mitigate fatigue among units that have been under constant pressure since the summer. However, the sheer scale of the Russian deployment, three armies plus airborne and naval infantry, means that Ukrainian reinforcements are spread thin.

Broader context: strikes beyond the front line

While the battle for Dobropillia rages, Ukraine has launched attacks further afield. On the same day, Ukrainian forces struck the Central air base in Rostov‑on‑Don, reportedly damaging several transport aircraft and helicopters. President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that the operation, carried out by the SBU, destroyed an An‑12, two An‑26s and three helicopters, though independent verification remains pending.

In the rail sector, Ukraine's foreign minister Andriy Sybiha warned that Russia has destroyed or damaged more than 250 Ukrainian Railways locomotives this year, bringing the total since the start of the war to 500. The attacks target both military logistics and civilian freight, threatening the movement of grain, essential supplies and the evacuation of civilians from frontline areas.

Sybiha appealed to Western partners for broad‑gauge locomotives and funding to replace the lost rolling stock, arguing that "supporting the resilience of Ukrainian Railways will help avert a humanitarian crisis and strengthen our resilience under the difficult conditions of full‑scale war."

Equipment losses on both sides

Data compiled by the open‑source project Oryx shows that, as of 14 September, Russian forces have lost 24,098 pieces of heavy equipment since the start of the conflict, including 4,447 tanks, of which 3,352 were destroyed in combat. Ukrainian losses stand at 12,143 pieces, including 1,462 tanks, with 1,120 destroyed.

These figures, while unverified by either side, illustrate the intensity of the fighting and the high cost of the equipment race that has characterised the war for six years.

What lies ahead

Prokopenko warned that Russian forces have not yet achieved their objective of taking Dobropillia before the end of summer. He expects the intensity of attacks to peak in September, as the weather turns colder and the foliage begins to fall.

"When the leaves fall, the terrain will change, and the Russians may rely more on armoured vehicles to push through," he said. "Fog could also aid their advance, but it will also hamper our observation."

For Ukrainian defenders, the challenge will be to hold the line with limited manpower while continuing to disrupt Russian drone operations and prevent the encirclement of larger cities further north.

European allies have been monitoring the situation closely. The concentration of Rubicon drone crews in one sector suggests a Russian attempt to achieve a decisive breakthrough, a development that could have repercussions for the broader security architecture in Eastern Europe.

Should Russian forces manage to capture Dobropillia, they could threaten supply routes that link the southern and northern parts of the Donbas, potentially forcing Ukraine to divert troops from other fronts. Conversely, a successful Ukrainian defence would preserve a critical foothold and keep the pressure on Russian logistics.

As the fighting enters the autumn months, the balance of power on the Dobropillia front will likely hinge on the ability of Ukrainian forces to sustain their defensive posture, the effectiveness of their drone‑based counter‑measures, and the willingness of European partners to provide the material and financial support needed to replace lost equipment and maintain morale among front‑line troops.