Lithuania’s defence minister has warned that Russia could launch false‑flag attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region using Ukrainian long‑range drones that have been captured and redirected by Russian electronic jamming. The alleged scheme, he said, is intended to make NATO hesitate in supporting Ukraine, which he called "unthinkable".

Recent drone incidents and the threat assessment

In recent weeks, drones that were originally launched from Ukraine were diverted into the airspace of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The drones entered the three states’ airspace after being jammed, landed or crashed without causing major damage, but their presence prompted immediate security responses.

President Gitanas Nausėda confirmed that intelligence services have intercepted signals indicating plans to target critical infrastructure, although the timing and exact locations remain vague.

Security measures in the Baltic states

Following the warning, Lithuanian authorities have increased security around power plants, railway hubs and ports. Latvian and Estonian officials are considering similar steps after reporting sabotage attempts and a rise in drone activity.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, speaking at a press conference in Vilnius, said that shared intelligence among the Baltic NATO members shows a clear pattern of coordinated sabotage attempts.

Parallel developments in Germany

German police opened an investigation after a drone carrying explosives was found near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport. The aircraft was transporting military ammunition. German authorities have not disclosed a suspect, and security journalist Michael Götschenberg stressed that identifying the drone operator is essential for attributing responsibility, especially if the incident is part of Russian hybrid tactics.

Analyst and EU reactions

European security analysts argue that the tactics are designed to erode public confidence in NATO and pressure governments to reduce aid to Ukraine. A senior fellow at a Brussels think‑tank warned that visible Ukrainian‑linked aggression could cause citizens to question continued support for Kyiv.

The EU foreign policy service reiterated the European Commission’s commitment to defending member‑state sovereignty and indicated that additional resources for counter‑drone technologies may be considered.

Future posture

NATO’s northern command has acknowledged a growing threat from hybrid attacks that combine cyber tools, electronic warfare and drones. The Baltic region is expected to boost air‑space monitoring, deploy electronic counter‑measures and hold more joint NATO exercises. Officials say the aim is to make any false‑flag operation costly for the attacker and to reassure the public.

While it remains uncertain whether Russia will execute the alleged plan, the warning has already led to heightened security postures across the Baltic states, with a focus on intelligence sharing and rapid response to potential threats.