Court decision

On 7 July a Paris court lifted a previous prohibition and allowed Marine Le Pen to stand in the 2027 French presidential election. The decision reversed an earlier ban that would have required the National Rally to nominate Jordan Bardella as its candidate.

Party dynamics

Political scientist Jean‑Yves Camus of the Institut français des relations internationales says the ruling revives Le Pen’s bid and forces the RN to confront the realities of governing. He notes that the party’s reliance on nationwide referendums could clash with France’s constitutional framework and strain its EU and NATO commitments.

Before the ruling the RN had prepared for Bardella, then 30, to be its presidential candidate. After the decision the party leadership adjusted its campaign strategy, re‑energising the base but creating a dilemma for the young politician. Camus points out that Le Pen has indicated she would name Bardella as prime minister if she wins, although many within the RN doubt his readiness. Bardella’s only elected role is as a list‑leader in the European Parliament; he has never held a mayoral office, a seat in the National Assembly or a ministerial post. His age is not a legal obstacle but raises practical concerns about competence, a situation Camus likens to the early premiership of former Austrian chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

Electoral prospects

Polls three days after the ruling placed Le Pen’s support between 32 % and 35 %, suggesting she is likely to reach the second round. Camus identifies two probable opponents: former prime minister Édouard Philippe and far‑left leader Jean‑Luc Mélenchon. He argues that a second‑round contest against Mélenchon could benefit Le Pen because the extreme left stance may repel moderate voters, whereas a contest against Philippe would centre on competence and stability, with centre‑right parties warning of the risks of an extremist government.

Constitutional challenges

The RN’s programme proposes that major reforms be decided by national referendums rather than parliamentary debate. Camus warns that a referendum on immigration asking whether France should continue accepting immigrants would ignore complex international and human‑rights obligations. The French Constitutional Council has previously ruled that laws creating separate rights for citizens and non‑citizens would breach the constitution. The RN also seeks to abolish the Constitutional Council, a move that could trigger a constitutional crisis and would require a constitutional amendment, a super‑majority in both houses and a referendum.

Foreign‑policy implications

A Le Pen presidency could shift France’s stance within the EU and NATO. The RN advocates a “Europe of nations”, criticises EU bureaucracy and would likely seek to renegotiate key treaties on migration and fiscal policy, though it does not call for a full EU exit. The party also entertains the possibility of withdrawing France from NATO’s integrated military command, a step reminiscent of Charles de Gaulle’s 1966 decision. German foreign‑ministry officials warn that such a move would undermine the collective security architecture that has kept Europe stable, while the European Commission’s director‑general for external relations stresses that France’s commitment to the EU’s common foreign and security policy remains a cornerstone of European unity.

Economic and social impact

Economically, the RN mixes protectionist measures such as higher tariffs and promotion of national champions with promises of lower taxes for families and higher public spending on security. Camus cautions that lower taxes would need to be financed, likely through increased borrowing or cuts elsewhere, which could raise public debt, inflation and reduce workers’ purchasing power. The CGT trade union has warned that RN policies could erode workers’ rights, with its secretary‑general noting that a focus on national sovereignty often translates into weakening collective bargaining and dismantling social protections. The RN argues that referendums will give workers a direct voice on relevant issues.

Future scenarios

French presidential elections are followed by legislative elections a month later. Even if the RN were to secure a majority in the National Assembly, it would still be subject to oversight by the Constitutional Council and the European Court of Justice. Camus stresses that the true test will be whether the RN can move from rhetoric to governance without breaching legal and institutional safeguards.

A narrow RN victory could embolden far‑right parties elsewhere, potentially reshaping Europe’s political map. France’s role as an EU anchor means a shift toward nationalist, referendum‑driven politics could inspire similar moves in other member states, challenging collective action. European Parliament President Roberta Mansilla has warned that erosion of democratic norms in a founding member state threatens the Union’s credibility and calls for vigilant monitoring of constitutional reforms.

For French workers, the election outcome will determine whether the next five years bring protectionist economics, stricter immigration controls and a reorientation of France’s global role, or whether a broad anti‑RN coalition will preserve the current liberal‑democratic order.